Gelombang kebangkitan rakyat dan skrip keramat BN di Kuala Terengganu

Ghazali Mayudin

Mon Jan 19, 09 5:42:58 pm MYT

Gelombang kebangkitan rakyat yang mahukan perubahan dalam politik dan pemerintahan negara berlaku dalam pilihan raya umum ke-12, Mac 2008. BN buat pertama kali gagal memperoleh majoriti dua pertiga dalam Parlimen dan tewas dalam empat negeri, di samping gagal merampas kembali Kelantan yang dikuasai PAS semenjak 1990.

Kebangkitan rakyat itu membawa kepada kewujudan Pakatan Rakyat iaitu gabungan PAS, KeADILan dan DAP yang berhasrat menjadi saingan sengit dan alternatif kepada BN. Kekalahan BN dalam dua pilihan raya kecil selepas Mac 2008 iaitu Permatang Pauh dan yang terbaru di Kuala Terengganu menunjukkan bahawa kebangkitan rakyat masih bergelora dan juga menggambarkan keyakinan bahawa mereka ada alternatif: sama ada memilih BN bermakna mengekalkan status quo atau memilih Pakatan Rakyat yang akan membawa perubahan.

Adanya alternatif yang diyakini dan serius ini adalah sesuatu yang baru dalam politik Malaysia selepas Mac 2008. Ini menjadikan politik Malaysia semakin menarik dan mencabar terutamanya kepada BN.

Keyakinan tentang adanya alternatif ini secara langsung memusnahkan momokan BN bahawa hanya parti itu sahaja yang boleh memerintah dan membawa Malaysia kearah kemajuan, sementara parti pembangkang hanya layak untuk terus menjadi parti pembangkang.

Kemenangan empat negeri di Pantai Barat membuktikan parti pembangkang, selain PAS, juga boleh memerintah, sekiranya diberi peluang.

Dalam konteks ini, pilihan raya kecil Kuala Trengganu bukanlah pilihan raya biasa, hanya tentang pertambahan atau pengurangan satu kerusi di Parlimen. Pilihan raya kecil ini boleh dijadikan ujian dan bukti sama ada momentum kesedaran dan kebangkitan rakyat yang menolak BN masih wujud atau tidak.

Oleh itu tidak hairanlah BN dan Pakatan Rakyat berhempas pulas memastikan calon yang diketengahkan menang dalam PRK ini. Kemenangan PAS di Kuala Trengganu membuktikan bahawa momentum kesedaran rakyat masih ada, dan ini bukanlah berita baik buat BN.
Momentum ke Sarawak

Dalam tempoh lebih kurang dua tahun lagi, rakyat Sarawak pula akan berpeluang untuk menentukan sama ada momentum itu terus meningkat atau telah mula menurun.

Sekiranya keputusan pilihan raya Dun Sarawak itu menunjukkan yang momentum itu masih wujud, maka isu yang dijangka akan mendasari pilihan raya umum ke-13 ialah parti manakah yang lebih layak memerintah Malaysia ? BN atau Pakatan Rakyat? Bagaimana pula respons Pakatan Rakyat dan BN terhadap kesedaran dan kebangkitan rakyat ini?

Pakatan Rakyat adalah antara pihak dan faktor yang memainkan peranan kepada timbulnya kesedaran di kalangan rakyat untuk berubah dan tentunya akan berusaha agar momentum itu akan berterusan dan lebih baik lagi kalau berlaku peningkatan. BN pula mungkin menerima hakikat kebangkitan rakyat itu, tetapi sehingga kini gagal untuk menangani dengan berkesan gelombang tersebut sebagaimana yang digambarkan oleh strategi dan tindakan BN dalam PRK Kuala Terengganu.

Dalam keadaan rakyat cukup bosan dengan sikap sebahagian pemimpin BN yang ego, berlagak serba tahu dan memandang rendah kebijaksanaan rakyat, BN pula meletakkan calon yang ada reputasi sebagai kurang mesra.

Poster, risalah dan ceramah digunakan untuk mewarwarkan calon BN tidak sombong, tetapi mesra rakyat.

Strategi dan tindakan BN untuk memenangi hati pengundi di Kuala Terengganu juga menampakkan yang parti itu seakan terperangkap dalam penjara yang dibinanya sendiri. Setelah memenangi puluhan pilihan raya, umum atau kecil, dengan skrip yang sama semenjak merdeka, maka skrip lama ini juga yang digunakan dalam pilihan raya abad ke-21 ini.

Isu pembangunan, penggunaan jentera kerajaan, ugutan terhadap rakyat dan kakitangan kerajaan, peruntukan segera untuk masjid, kuil, tokong, sekolah (dan lain-lain lagi), juga liputan media cetak dan elektronik yang berlebihan termasuklah berita ahli parti pembangkang yang melompat masuk BN adalah antara kandungan skrip yang telah membawa kemenangan kepada BN dalam banyak pilihan raya sebelum ini.

Oleh itu apabila ada pilihan raya, umum atau kecil, skrip keramat ini akan dikeluarkan dan digunakan dengan patuh. Itemnya sama, yang berbeza cuma kadar atau jumlahnya. Sekiranya perlu, ugutan diperkuatkan, jumlah peruntukan ditambah, penggunaan media dipertingkatkan, lebih lama dan lebih luas.

Pilihan raya kecil Kuala Terengganu menunjukkan yang gelombang kebangkitan rakyat masih bergelora dan BN gagal meredakan gelora itu dengan menggunakan skrip lama dalam setiap pilihan raya.

Soalnya, mampukah dan bolehkah BN mempunyai skrip baru? Kemungkinannya kecil selagi BN terbelenggu dan terpenjara dengan kaedah, taktik dan teknik lama yang telah membawa kemenangan dan keagungan parti itu dalam abad ke-20.
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Ghazali ialah Profesor Madya di Jabatan Sains Politik Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia

Najib gagal baca amaran awal kekalahan?

Ahmad Lutfi Othman

Mon Jan 19, 09 7:19:32 pm MYT

SEBELUM diisytihar menang pun, penampilan Mohd Abdul Wahid Endut sebagai calon PAS, mewakili Pakatan Rakyat, sudah menempa sejarah tersendiri. Pemilihannya memang tidak dijangka. Namanya dicalonkan di peringkat awal, tetapi khabarnya beliau sendiri menarik diri, untuk memberi laluan kepada tokoh-tokoh lain, dan antara yang disebut-sebut ialah Dr Syed Azman Syed Ahmad Nawawi, Adun Batu Burok yang juga bekas Ahli Parlimen Kuala Terengganu (1999-2004) dan Mustafa Ali, Pesuruhjaya PAS Negeri.

Sejarah dibentuk lagi kemudiannya apabila persepakatan erat Pakatan Rakyat terserlah bermula dari hari penamaan calon, semasa kempen hinggalah hari pembuangan undi. Rasanya inilah kali pertama pimpinan utama DAP, diketuai Lim Kit Siang dan Lim Guan Eng aktif berkampung di kawasan majoriti Melayu, dan lebih menarik ia terletak di Kuala Terengganu.

"Cantiknya ia berlaku di Terengganu"

Apabila turun mengatur strategi dan berkempen bersama, tentulah "yang jauh dapat didekat, yang dekat dapat dimesrakan". Ada dakwaan mengatakan pimpinan PAS Terengganu agak tidak begitu "dekat dan mesra" bukan saja dengan pemimpinan DAP, malah KeADILan.

Sementara kemenangan dengan majoriti tidak terduga Abdul Wahid, iaitu 2,632 undi, disambut gema takbir (dan kemudiannya ratusan anak muda meraikannya di jalan-jalan sekitar bandar), Timbalan Presiden Umno, Najib Razak, yang mengemudi jentera kempen BN pasti terkedu dengan kekalahan bergandanya.

Permatang Pauh mungkin tidak memalukannya tetapi Kuala Terengganu nyata memberi tamparan hebat buat bakal Perdana Menteri, yang dijangka naik takhta Mac nanti.

Permatang Pauh dikenali sebagai kubu kuat Anwar Ibrahim sejak 1982 lagi, terletak pula di negeri Pakatan Rakyat. Sementara Kuala Terengganu milik Umno-BN, di negeri Terengganu yang mana BN menang besar dalam pilihan raya umum ke-12, menghadang ombak tsunami politik yang menghempas Pantai Barat.

Lebih perit buat BN di Kuala Terengganu

Di Permatang Pauh calon BN kekurangan 1,426 undi berbanding pilihan raya 2008 tetapi di Kuala Terengganu, "orang kuat" Abdullah Ahmad Badawi, undi Wan Ahmad Farid Wan Salleh merosot 2,320 berbanding penyandang, Allahyarham Razali Ismail.

Najib diakui bekerja keras sepanjang 11 hari berkempen, menawarkan pelbagai impian, menyogok tawaran, dan mengetuk pintu demi pintu, bagi memastikan momentum kejayaan gemilang Anwar tidak merebak ke Pantai Timur.

Kini reputasi Najib - dan BN yang bakal dipimpinnya - dipercayai tambah gelap memandangkan bagasi sejarah beliau juga begitu membebankannya. Igauan Altantunya Shaariibu masih menghantui Najib hinggakan mereka yang manampal gambar gadis Mongolia itu di Kuala Terengganu pun ditahan polis.

Umno di bawah terajunya nanti dijangka berdepan masalah dalaman lebih parah. Secara umumnya, imej peribadi calon BN, Wan Farid Salleh, yang dikatakan "sombong, tidak mesra, elitis, bersifat bangsawan" boleh menggambarkan imej Umno-BN sekarang.

Malang sekali, Najib dan juga jentera kempen BN tidak pernah berubah; mereka seolah-olah langsung tidak mengambil iktibar pengalaman pahit pilihan raya Mac 2008 yang menyaksikan lima negeri jatuh dan majoriti dua pertiga BN di Parlimen dinafikan.

Seperti ditegaskan sarjana politik Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, Prof Madya Ghazali Mayudin, yang menghantar artikelnya kepada saya pada awal pagi 17 Januari, di waktu pusat mengundi baru dibuka: "Strategi dan tindakan BN untuk memenangi hati pengundi di KT menampakkan yang parti itu seakan terperangkap dalam penjara yang dibinanya sendiri. Setelah memenangi puluhan pilihan raya, umum atau kecil, dengan skrip yang sama semenjak merdeka, maka skrip lama ini juga yang digunakan dalam pilihan raya abad ke-21 ini." Maknanya Ghazali menulis artikel itu, yang sudah merumuskan punca kekalahan BN, sebelum pemilih berdaftar membuang undi lagi. Ramalan sarjana politik terbukti tepat

Bukan Ghazali seorang yang begitu yakin PAS boleh menang, malah beberapa pengkaji dan sarjana politik lain sudah meramalkan begitu. Ketua Program Sains Politik UKM, Prof Madya Dr Mohamad Agus Yusoff, empat hari sebelum mengundi, memaklumkan kepada saya: "Lutfi, pegang cakap-cakap saya ini, PAS boleh menang sehingga majoriti 3,000 undi!" Seorang lagi pensyarah sains politik, Prof Madya Dr Ahmad Nidzamuddin, melalui siaran langsung TV, berdasarkan tinjauannya, juga dengan penuh yakin menjangkakan PAS bakal menang.

Semasa kempen, berdepan masyarakat Tionghua, yang dikira undi penentu, BN terus menakutkan mereka dengan isu Hudud walhal dalam pilihan raya umum lalu, khususnya di Pantai Barat, pengundi Cina dan India tanpa segan silu menyelimuti bendera PAS di tubuh mereka, sambil giat berkempen memenangkan Pakatan Rakyat. Seorang pemimpin muda MCA Cheras, melalui siaran Astro Awani menegaskan, "politik ugut dan gertak" menggunakan isu Hudud sudah tidak berkesan lagi.

Politik "pembangunan dan keselamatan" dengan gaya lama adalah konsep kuno yang tidak lagi sesuai dengan dunia siber dan langit terbuka ini. Benar seperti kata A Kadir Jasin, BN yang sudah terlalu lama berkuasa sudah begitu sukar berubah: "Mereka tetap menggunakan taktik lama yang sama. Memang ada janji untuk melakukan bedah-siasat atas kekalahan Mac 2008 tetapi apabila didapati post-mortem itu menikam pemimpin atasan, ia terus dilupakan. Jadi, tidak hairanlah jika ada ahli Umno sendiri yang mendoakan BN kalah di Kuala Terengganu."

Di pihak Pakatan Rakyat pula, diharap hubungan erat semasa kempen dapat diinstitusikan. Lima negeri Pakatan harus menyerlahkan bentuk kerjasama yang boleh memberi banyak manfaat buat rakyat.

Persefahaman mantap Pakatan

Tidak mudah berdepan ketidak-tentuan ekonomi dan cabaran lain yang lebih sengit dalam waktu terdekat, namun dengan persefahaman pimpinan Pakatan di peringkat pusat dan negeri terbabit, segala kemelut mudah dirongkai.

Lebih menarik, "Pengisytiharan Mentaloon" dikeluarkan pada 18 Mac, sehari selepas pilihan raya kecil Kuala Terengganu, membabitkan semua Menteri Besar dan Ketua Menteri lima negeri Pakatan Rakyat, bertempat di kediaman Menteri Besar Kedah, di Sri Mentaloon, Alor Setar.

Impian rakyat untuk menikmati kehidupan lebih baik di bawah Pakatan begitu tinggi. Segala tawaran dalam manifesto masih ada yang belum tertunai. Masa Umno-BN sudah berlalu.

PAS terbukti dapat melalui ranjau dengan cemerlang sekali. KT bukan sahaja membuka laluan untuk menguasai kembali Terengganu, malah menunjuk jalan lurus ke Putrajaya, insya-Allah.

Dan terbukti penangguhan cetakan Harakah edisi Jumaat, Bil 1408, daripada pagi Sabtu kepada pagi Ahad, bagi menunggu keputusan pilihan raya, adalah langkah tepat! Kami tidak mahu terlewat untuk merakam satu sejarah baru dalam politik Malaysia.

Politik Rasuah dan Politik Janji Rasuah RM 1 billion

Kenyataan Akhbar

National Institute for Electoral Integrity (NIEI)

Isnin, 19 Januari 2009

Pilihanraya Kecil Parlimen Kuala Terengganu P036
Penginstitusian Rasuah Pilihanraya: Politik Rasuah dan Politik Janji Rasuah RM 1 billion

Tiga perkara yang ketara dapat diperhatikan dalam perjalanan proses pilihanraya kecil (PRK) kawasan parlimen Kuala Terengganu (P036):

1. Penginstitusian rasuah dalam pilihanraya
2. Penyalahgunaan jentera kerajaan
3. Kehadiran terlalu ramai anggota polis

Amalan rasuah berleluasa dalam pilihanraya di Malaysia, ini dapat dikenalpasti berlaku dalam proses PRK Kuala Terengganu.

Amalan rasuah pilihanraya diinstitusikan dalam pelbagai bentuk. Yang lazim difahami ramai ialah pemberian wang tunai secara langsung. Di PRK P036, wang ehsan sebanyak RM300 bagi orang dewasa dan RM250 untuk muda-mudi diumumkan akan diagih untuk warga Terengganu. Manakala pengundi Cina diedarkan angpau sebanyak RM300 sempena perayaan Tahun Baru Cina. Penarik beca Kuala Terengganu pula dijanjikan wang ehsan sebanyak RM10,000 seorang.

Para wartawan pun tidak ketinggalan dirasuahkan. Pada petang 16 Januari 2009, sehari sebelum hari mengundi, wartawan-wartawan yang berada di pusat media Barisan Nasional diagihkan wang sebanyak RM300. Dua minggu sebelum itu, pihak yang sama telah memberikan para wartawan baju hujan yang bernilai RM98 sehelai.

Rasuah secara tidak langsung untuk memancing undi sangat banyak sekali, antara lainnya disenaraikan seperti di bawah ini:

1. Penubuhan dan pemberian RM1 juta untuk Tabung Kecemasan Nelayan
2. Peruntukan RM150,000 untuk skim pembangunan nelayan Kuala Terengganu
3. Pemberian secara lambak tanpa tender 583 projek Kelas F yang bernilai RM15.8 juta
4. Upacara mengasas projek pembinaan unit kardiologi yang bernilai RM10 juta
5. Upacara perasmian projek pembinaan masjid di Kubang Ikan (Kuala Terengganu) pada 15 Januari 2009
6. Upacara pecah tanah pembinaan 1,200 unit Projek Perumahan Rakyat Termiskin (PPRT)
7. Perasmian peruntukan RM100 juta untuk membina 1000 unit rumah kos rendah di Kuala Terengganu
8. Pemberian RM6.1 juta untuk SJKC Chung Hwa Wei Sin
9. Pemberian sebanyak RM2.5 juta untuk masyarakat Cina Kuala Terengganu
10. Pengumuman grant RM50 juta untuk sekolah-sekolah Cina
11. Pemberian pilot E-book kepada 100 orang pelajar di Kuala Terengganu. Janji pemberian sejumlah 23,000 buah E-book, berharga RM1,300 sebuah, kepada kanak-kanak sekolah.
12. 206 orang penenun songket menerima satu set seorang Kek Tenunan Tradisional yang berharga RM695 satu unit
13. Pemberian RM408.6 juta kepada kerajaan Negeri Terengganu sebagai royalti minyak
14. Mengisytiharkan projek untuk meluaskan ruang keluar-masuk pelabuhan perikanan di Pelabuhan Cendering

Penyalahgunaan Kuasa dan Jentera Kerajaan

Berkaitan dengan amalan rasuah di atas ialah salah guna kuasa dan jentera kerajaan di peringkat tempatan, negeri dan persekutuan:

• Di peringkat kerajaan tempatan, Datuk Bandar Kuala Terengganu merangkap Pegawai Kanan Pilihanraya, Mat Razali Kassim berkempen dan mendesak kakitangan di bawahnya untuk mengundi BN. (Beliau terpaksa meletakkan jawatan Pegawai Kanan Pilihanraya).

• Penggantinya, Setiausaha Majlis Bandaraya Kuala Terengganu, yang sebelumnya memangku Pegawai Kanan Pilihanraya, Wan Mustafa Wan Hassan juga disangsikan kerana melibatkan diri dalam program kempen BN.

• Penggunaan pejabat Menteri Besar dan jentera-jentera Jabatan Kerja Raya dalam upacara pecah tanah perasmian pembinaan masjid.

• Ketika ceramah di Taman Perumahan Pusu Tiga, Gong Badak, Menteri Besar Ahmad Said mengararahkan Jabatan Saliran dan Perparitan untuk mengkaji masalah banjir di kawasan itu

• Setiausaha Kerajaan Negeri dan Pengarah Kewangan Negeri melibatkan diri dalam program-program taklimat BN yang disasarkan kepada imam dan bilal masjid, ketua kampung dan pegawai perkhidmatan awam. Termasuklah pegawai kerajaan luar kawasan yang mengundi di P036

• Perasmian nama Institut Pendidikan Guru Malaysia kepada Kampus Datuk Razali Ismail, dan sebuah SMK kepada SMK Datuk Razali Ismail (arwah wakil parliamen BN Kuala terengganu)

• Kementerian-kementerian Persekutuan yang berikut didapati terlibat dalam kempen PRK P036:

1. Kementerian Kesihatan
2. Kementerian Pendidikan
3. Kementerian Kebajikan Masyarakat
4. Kementerian Pertanian
5. Kementerian Kewangan
6. Jabatan Perdana Menteri
7. Kementerian Penerangan
8. Kementerian Wanita, Keluarga dan Pembangunan Komuniti

Kempen juga menwar-warkan khidmat dan perbelanjaan kerajaan yang telah dilaksanakan seolah-olah dibiayai oleh BN:

• Peruntukan RM500,000 di bulan Disember 2008 untuk mangsa banjir;
• RM200,000 telah dibelanjakan untuk membeli makanan dan keperluan lain untuk mangsa banjir
• Penggantian atap-atap rumah
• Pendaratan pesawat MAS penerbangan pulang haji direk ke Kuala Terengganu

Ramai menteri dan timbalan menteri kabinet Persekutuan serta menteri besar dan ahli-ahli exco negeri-negeri yang datang berkempen untuk PRK P036. Antara lainnya ialah:

1. Abdullah Badawi
2. Najib Razak
3. Zahid Hamidi
4. Mohd Shafie Apdal
5. Dr. Ng Yen Yen
6. Shahrizat
7. Hishamuddin Hussein
8. Muhyidin Yassin
9. Ong Tee Kiat
10. Muhamad Taib
11. Azalina Othman
12. Syed Hamid Albar
13. Noh Omar
14. Hamzah Zainudin
15. Ali Rustam
16. Lim Guan Eng
17. Ahmad Said
18. Mohamad Nizar
19. Ngeh Koo Ham
20. Nik Aziz
21. Khalid Ibrahim
22. Theresa Kok
23. Elizebeth Wong
24. Husam Musa
25. Nik Aziz Nik Mat
26. Hasan Ali

Persoalannya, atas perbelanjaan siapakah kehadiran mereka berkempen di Kuala Terengganu itu?

Juga berlaku amalan rasuah dalam bentuk pengedaran dan pemberian percuma oleh BN surat khabar Utusan Malaysia, Berita Harian dan Sinar Harian. Pelbagai konsert anjuran Jabatan Penerangan Malaysia diadakan, termasuk persembahan penyanyi termuka dari Terengganu iaitu Salim Iklim.

Pihak pembangkang Parti Islam SeMalaysia (PAS) juga didapati melanggar etika amalan pilihanraya yang baik. Contohnya, pemberian percuma kerusi roda di Bukit Tepu, khidmat percuma gunting rambut dan rundingan kesihatan pakar homeopati.

Terlalu Ramai Anggota Polis

Dianggarkan 10,000 anggota polis berpakaian biasa dan seragam dikerahkan bertugas di Kuala Terengganu sepanjang tempoh kempen PRK di situ. Nisbahnya 1 orang polis untuk 8 orang pengundi.

Kehadiran terlalu ramai polis memberikan suasana sebagai keadaan perang. Jika tujuannya untuk menjaga keselamatan, tetapi kesan adalah disebaliknya, orang ramai terasa tidak selesa dan berpersepsi seolah keadaan dalam darurat. Ini bertentangan dengan suasana pilihanraya yang baik, iaitu bebas dan tenteram.

Akta pilihanraya perlu dipinda untuk membenteras rasuah dan janji rasuah sebagai kaedah membeli dan membeli undi. Terutama sekali, penyalahgunaan kuasa dan jentera kerajaan untuk kempen pilihanraya mestilah diharamkan.

Para pengundi Kuala Terengganu sudah pun menunjukkan sikap matang, majoriti mereka tidak dapat digula-gula lagi.

Yunus Ali
Pengerusi NIEI

Sharp Slap to UMNO’s Leadership

Monday, 19 January 2009

by M. Bakri Musa

The humiliation suffered by UMNO in the January 17, 2009 by-election in Kuala Trengganu, a seat previously held by one of its Deputy Ministers, is further proof that the party’s thumping in the March 2008 General Elections was the beginning of the end. Getting rid of its leader Abdullah Badawi will not alter UMNO’s fate; a future with Najib Razak will be no solution either.

The party is no longer salvageable; UMNO is now beyond redemption. Its leaders and members are incapable of appreciating and thus adapting to the profound changes now gripping the nation. As Tengku Razaleigh aptly put it when commenting on the results, “We are in uncharted waters with no one at the wheel.”

There are of course exceptions to the current lack of talent in UMNO’s leadership, but they are rare. Zaid Ibrahim had some sensible ideas on reforming the judiciary for example, but look what they did to him! Tengku Razaleigh’s speech at the recent ASLI economic conference was simply brilliant; he rightly pinpointed the major problems facing our nation and offered sensible strategies to approaching them. His was an insight and articulation Malaysians should expect of our leaders. There again however, he was essentially ignored by UMNO’s leadership hierarchy in his recent quest for the top slot.

In this by-election UMNO resorted to its old corrupt ways that had served it well in the past. There were the sudden announcements of generous public funds to key constituent groups as well as the usual co-opting of government agencies to do Barisan’s bidding. If those tricks were not enough, there was the literal stuffing of envelopes with cold cash for voters and reporters. Judgement on Najib Razak’s Leadership The victory by PAS candidate Wahid Endut is even more impressive considering that future (come this March) Prime Minister Najib Razak literally made his temporary home in Kuala Trengganu during the entire 11 days of campaigning, returning only briefly to the capital to take part in the Tahlil prayers on the anniversary of his father’s death.

Those voters viewed the upcoming transfer of power from Abdullah to Najib less a promise of better things and more a threat of the same tired corrupt and corrosive ways of the past. The political status quo would only further divide instead of bringing us together. Malaysians were rightly fed up with this.

Win or lose, this election would not alter the political reality; Barisan would still maintain its majority in Parliament. In perception however, this loss only reinforces my earlier “beginning of the end” and “beyond redemption” assertions of UMNO. Undoubtedly these were the reasons that compelled Najib to expend his political capital and risk his reputation by actively campaigning.

Ignored by voters, Najib tried to rationalize the outcome by dismissing it as a “minor setback” with “no impact on the national political landscape.” He was reduced to declaring that Barisan was “still relevant.” Pathetic!

I would have expected that as Finance Minister, Najib would be busy in Putrajaya dealing with the rapidly evolving global financial crisis now threatening our nation. Instead there he was in Kuala Trengganu acting like Santa Claus distributing candies to voters. They gleefully took the gifts, but being adults (and Muslims, at least most of them) they did not believe in Santa Claus, or Najib Razak.

These past few weeks reflect Najib Razak’s leadership priorities and sensibilities. Kuala Trengganu voters were rightly not impressed. Neither am I. Greasing UMNO’s Slide Come this March, Najib Razak will be the party’s (and thus country’s) leader. He will have as his deputy Ali Rustam, Muhyyiddin Yassin, or the Double Muhammad Taib, individuals with tainted pasts and less-than-impressive resumes. Sobering thought!

Barring divine or other intervention, this will also be the team that will lead UMNO and Barisan Nasional into the next General Elections scheduled no later than March 2013. UMNO has its leadership convention every three years; theoretically it could change its leadership before the next general elections. However, the party has a tradition of “no contest” for its top two positions and a past pattern whereby leaders would conveniently postpone the leadership convention till after the general elections.

That would be great news for Anwar Ibrahim-led Pakatan Rakyat, further enhancing its chance of assuming power. This may occur even sooner if Barisan Members of Parliament, sensing the political change, were to abandon their parties. The shift could also come earlier if, as expected, Sarawak were to call an earlier election. Then there is the volatile political situation in Sabah.

The objective of any political party is in assuming power. Anything less and you will be relegated to the status of a perpetual fringe party. While that may satisfy the purists in your party, you risk being permanently dismissed by voters. The country’s political graveyard is littered by the ghosts of many such parties.

Then there is the crucial difference of being voted into office because of the positive choice of voters rather than their rejecting your opponent. Anwar Ibrahim and his fellow leaders in Pakatan Rakyat are fully aware of this. It is not enough for Malaysians to be fed up with Barisan Nasional, we must be sold on the promise and potential of a Pakatan Rakyat administration.

As leader of the party that is the centre of the political, racial and other spectra of the Pakatan Rakyat coalition, Anwar has adroitly handled the many competing interests within his coalition by focussing on their commonalities and less on their differences. Differences there are, and they are many and consequential; they could potentially fracture the coalition. If that were to happen, it would crush the hopes of Malaysians long yearning for a change.

Besides, there are enough commonalities of purpose among the component parties of PakatanRakyat, from eradicating corruption and strengthening our institutions to reducing poverty and fostering economic development, among others. Ameliorate them, and you would have the cheers and votes of those currently advocating for an Islamic State, “Malaysia for Malaysians,” or Ketuanan Melayu.

Tackling each of these problems (and all must be addressed at once) would challenge the ingenuity of even the most enlightened and committed leaders. There is no need to harp on their differences. All these could be done without getting entangled with such highly divisive and emotional issues as hudud or special privileges. Besides, those slogans as “Islamic State,” “Ketuanan Melayu” and “Malaysia for Malaysians” have now become meaningless, having been corrupted to being code words for those with more sinister motives.

The corruption and incompetence of the Barisan coalition should motivate Pakatan leaders to focus on solving the glaring and pressing problems of our nation. That would be the sure way to power, quite apart from greasing the downward slide of UMNO and its Barisan Nasional coalition.

Kalah di Kuala Terengganu lebih parah berbanding tewas di Permatang Pauh

A Kadir Jasin Sun Jan 18, 09 7:45:01 am MYT

PADA hari Jumaat, 16 Januari, akhbar arus perdana Berita Harian menyiarkan tajuk berita berbunyi "Harapan BN Cerah" dan meramalkan parti kerajaan pusat itu akan mengekalkan kerusi Parlimen Kuala Terengganu.

Akhbar kembarnya, New Straits Times pula berkata: "Barisan Upbeat, PAS Edgy" (Barisan Yakin, PAS Gementar).

BH menokok tambah dengan menyiarkan temu ramah dengan Timbalan Perdana Menteri, Mohd Najib Abdul Razak di mana Timbalan Presiden Umno itu menyangkal persamaan antara Kuala Terengganu dan Permatang Pauh.

Utusan Malaysia memilih tajuk berita yang lebih neutral berbunyi "Jangan Terpengaruh Serangan Peribadi" dan semalam (17 Januari) menyiarkan tajuk ringkas "Siapa Pilihan Pengundi?"

Ternyata sekali BH dan NST membuat ramalan yang songsang sama ada kerana maklumat dan perisikannya tidak tetap atau kerana mahu menjaga hati pihak-pihak tertentu.

Seperti umum sudah maklum BN gagal mempertahankan Kuala Terengganu malah telah kalah dengan teruk.

Calonnya, Wan Ahmad Farid Wan Salleh tewas kepada calon PAS, Abdul Wahid Endut dengan 2,631 undi. Dia memperoleh 30,252 undi berbanding Abdul Wahid yang memperoleh 32,883 undi.

Pengundi Kuala Terengganu nampaknya tidak termakan janji melangit yang dibuat oleh Umno dan BN malahan ahli dan penyokong Umno sendiri nampaknya masih marah dan menyimpan dendam terhadap kepemimpinan parti mereka.

Kekalahan ini pastinyalah memberi kesan yang besar kepada BN dan Umno, khasnya kepada Mohd Najib yang menjadi kepala perang Umno dan BN walaupun beliau berkata kekalahan itu tidak bermakna pengundi menolak BN dan memberi undi tidak percaya kepadanya.

Kekalahan ini sedikit sebanyak membayangkan yang pengundi Kuala Terengganu belum bersedia untuk memberi "endorsement" kepada beliau atau kepada proses pemulihan Umno dan BN yang diuar-uarkan itu.

Bagi Umno dan BN, kegagalan mempertahankan Kuala Terengganu memberi gambaran bahawa penolakan terhadapnya semakin meluas sejak pilihan raya umum Mac lalu.

Ini tentunya akan menyukarkan lagi kedudukan Mohd Najib apabila beliau mengambil alih pemerintahan negara Mac ini.

Tetapi seandainya beliau faham sentimen pengundi dan bersedia membuat perubahan yang drastik ke atas Umno, BN dan kerajaan selepas mengambil alih pemerintahan beliau mungkin dapat meredakan kemarahan pengundi khasnya dan rakyat jelata amnya.

Kekalahan di Kuala Terengganu adalah sumpahan dan bala yang sangat besar kepada Umno dan BN kerana ia adalah kerusi BN dan terletak di dalam negeri yang memberi sokongan yang sangat kuat kepada BN pada pilihan raya umum Mac lalu.

Gagal menakluki semula Permatang Pauh Ogos lalu tidak teruk kerana ia kubu Anwar Ibrahim dan terletak di dalam negeri yang menolak BN pada pilihan raya umum lalu.

Sekiranya Umno dan BN gagal memahami sebab musabab kekalahannya di Kuala Terengganu dan mengambil tindakan mengatasi kesilapannya, tragedi yang sama akan menimpanya pada pilihan raya kecil yang lain dan, yang lebih mendesak, pada pilihan raya Dewan Undangan Negeri Sarawak tidak lama lagi.

Jelas daripada keputusan Kuala Terengganu bahawa pemilihan calon dan penanganan isu tempatan adalah kunci kejayaan dalam pilihan raya kecil.

Nyata andaian umum mengenai ketidaksuaian calon BN tetap apabila dia bukan sahaja gagal mempertahankan kerusi Kuala Terengganu sebaliknya kalah dengan teruk.

Janji pembangunan, penaburan wang dan kempen yang keterlaluan menyebabkan ramai pemilih berasa jijik. Begitu juga dengan peranan media massa arus perdana yang tidak berpijak kepada realiti apabila membuat laporan dan analisis menyokong Umno dan BN.

Boleh jadi juga pengundi masih belum puas hati dengan perubahan yang berlaku di Umno dan BN maka mereka terus menghukum Umno dan BN walaupun Abdullah sudah berjanji akan mengundurkan diri dan menyerahkan jawatan kepada Mohd Najib Mac ini.

Mungkin juga kaedah kempen "carpet bombing" oleh Umno dan BN, dan pergantungannya kepada jentera kerajaan, media massa arus perdana dan orang luar tidak lagi berkesan malah memualkan pemilih.

Kemenangan calon PAS membuktikan yang parti itu serta rakan-rakannya dalam Pakatan Rakyatnya semakin kuat dan diyakini walaupun wujud perbezaan yang besar antara PAS dan DAP.

Apa pun, semua pihak wajib menerima pilihan yang dibuat oleh pengundi Kuala Terengganu itu.

A threat too far

Monday, 19 January 2009

Raja Petra Kamarudin

“I need guys who can drink like a fish and not fall down,” I told Bernard.

“So make sure we get the hardcore drinkers to Kuala Terengganu. The Chinese will never trust anyone who does not drink.”

It was exactly two weeks that we spent in Kuala Terengganu -- from the eve of Nomination Day until the day after Polling Day. It was not a lot of money we spent, though, just about RM25,000 in all. But then that is because we never had to pay for our beer and liquor. Our Chinese hosts would refuse to accept our money and appeared very offended when we insisted we pay.

Okay, not everyone drank. Even some Indians in the group did not drink a drop in spite of them having a reputation of being ‘terror drinkers’. In fact, Bala would not even drink Coke. He only drank plain water or, once in awhile, green tea.

Nevertheless, seeing that we had about 20 rooms, twin-sharing, there were certainly enough in the gang to do us proud and to stand up to the heavy-drinking Chinese loggers and saw-millers without falling down drunk before the witching hour.

“PAS is going to win big,” said my ‘drinking partner’ who was not only pissed drunk but quite pissed that I had a Coke glass in my hand and was refusing his constant ‘harassment’ to ‘drink with me’.

“Hey!” I kept reminding him.

“Just being in this pub is already an offence. I could get arrested. You want me behind bars or what? Imagine how Umno would go to town with the news tomorrow when the newspaper headlines report ‘Blogger RPK caught drinking in a pub in Kuala Terengganu’. They will crucify me.”

“Okay, okay, I understand. You are forgiven. But I still don’t like drinking with someone drinking only Coke.”“Never mind about me. My friends are drinking. They can drink my share.”

In fact, Bernard more than drank my share. He probably drank three people’s share. Anyway, being a Muslim was a convenient ‘excuse’ not to drink. The others were never allowed a half-empty glass. Our Chinese friends from Kuala Terengganu kept topping up the glasses of our Blogging Team until no one knew any longer how much they had drunk.

“You do not need the Chinese votes,” my Chinese friend went on.

“PAS is going to win big without the Chinese votes.”

This statement troubled me and I asked my Chinese friend who was facing great trouble tying to remain standing to explain what he meant.

“PAS is going to win big. The Malays will swing to PAS. You just watch. So you do not need the Chinese votes. The Chinese can vote BN.”

“I don’t think we should look at it that way,” I told my friend with a discouraged sound in my voice.

“Every vote counts. We need the Chinese votes.”

My Chinese friend probably detected that I was perturbed and he downed his glass before explaining further.

“We Chinese know that PAS is going to win. The Malays are going to swing to PAS. So you can win without the Chinese votes. The Malay votes are enough to give PAS the win.”

“Okay,” I replied. “But even if PAS can win with the Malay votes why can’t the Chinese also vote for PAS?”

“PAS is already going to win by at least 2,000 votes even if the Chinese vote BN. So why worry?”

“Okay, I understand. But what’s wrong if the Chinese also vote PAS and make the win 5,000 instead of 2,000?”

“We Chinese don’t want to be blamed for Umno’s loss. Let the Malays vote PAS. PAS then wins on the Malay votes. The Chinese will vote BN. Then Umno can’t blame the Chinese for their defeat. The Chinese voted BN and PAS won with the Malay votes, not the Chinese votes.”

I could see his logic here but I did not like it.

“What if the Chinese vote BN and BN wins, PAS loses.”

“No way man. PAS will win. The Malay swing is big. It is safe for the Chinese to vote BN. PAS will still win.”

“But why?” I asked.

“Why do the Chinese want to vote BN when you support PAS?”

“We support PAS. Look, my friend over there gave PAS RM1 million in the last general election.” He pointed to the chap at the end of the bar and signalled him to come over.

“We have no problems with PAS. We prefer PAS to BN,” his friend added.

“I was the one in the Chinese newspapers who held up the can of beer in front of the PAS markas in Wakaf Tapai. You remember or not?”

Yes, I remembered that episode. I think it was in the 2004 general election. But Umno went to town with the whole thing and distorted the issue. They said that PAS is hypocritical about Islam and is allowing liquor in the state.

“Okay, what if PAS loses and they lose because the Chinese voted BN?”

“No way. PAS will win. If PAS is going to lose then we Chinese will vote PAS. But we know PAS will win. So no need for the Chinese to vote PAS. Let PAS win on the Malay votes. We Chinese can then say we voted BN but BN still lost. And it is because of the Malays and not the Chinese that PAS won.”

I suppose this is Chinese ‘logic’ and I have come to understand how the Chinese mind works. Cari makan is very important to the Chinese and must come first. They can’t risk their cari makan by being seen to be supporting the opposition. This was, after all, a bunch of Chinese towkays that I was taking to. They are flush with money and became rich not by being seen as anti-government.

By the end of the two weeks I realised that PAS would have to depend on the Malay swing, not the Chinese votes. The Chinese would give us enough votes just to keep BN in check. At best we can expect 40% to 45% votes from the Chinese. They will make sure that the majority of the Chinese vote for BN just so that it can be seen that more than half the Chinese support the government. But it will not be more than that.

Rosmah Mansor, the wife of the Deputy Prime Minister, made this very clear to the Kuala Terengganu voters on Saturday, one week before the by-election. “We know who you vote for,” said Rosmah. “If you vote for the opposition we will know.”The message Rosmah was sending to the Kuala Terengganu voters is that your vote is not secret and the government will know if you voted for PAS or BN. That is not true, of course, but who would want to take that risk in case it is?

The Terengganu Menteri Besar, Ahmad Said, was more blunt when he told the Chinese. “If you are nice to me, then I will be nice to you. If you are not nice to me, then I can be ten times more not nice to you.”This was a veiled threat if ever I did see one and the message was simple: if you vote for PAS then expect my wrath. And everyone knows Ahmad Said would not hesitate to engage in fisticuffs, even during a State Assembly meeting, as Wahid Endut, who was once a victim of Ahmad Said, can testify.

The 8,000 Chinese voters in a state with a population of more than one million Malays do not need too many ‘messages’ to understand what lies ahead of them if they vote for PAS. And the 8,000 police personnel positioned all over town, practically laying Kuala Terengganu to siege, makes matters more dicey. Why the need for a police-to-Chinese ratio of one-to-one?

What the Chinese were telling us was not comforting but something we could not quarrel with. The Chinese were being threatened. They were being told that they vote for PAS at their own peril. If they know what is good for them then they must vote BN.The Chinese got the message loud and clear. And they also knew that PAS was going to win just on Malay votes, even if the Chinese voted BN. Okay, if the Chinese vote BN then PAS is going to win by a 2,000-vote majority. And if the Chinese vote PAS then the majority is going to be 5,000. But is it worth the risk just to increase PAS’s majority from 2,000 to 5,000?I had to concede that the Chinese are going to ‘play safe’.

“But just promise me one thing,” I told my Chinese friend.

“If PAS can’t get the Malay swing will the Chinese then vote PAS?”

“If PAS can’t win without Malay votes then we Chinese will vote PAS. But PAS will win, you watch, so no need for the Chinese votes. Let us vote BN and then we can put the blame on the Malays when PAS wins.”

The story does not end here though. On Sunday morning, the Blogging Team did a door-to-door walkabout to personally thank the Chinese voters before we came home to Kuala Lumpur. Some had tears in their eyes. “Kita menang,” many told me. Yes, ‘kita menang’, not ‘you menang’. It was a win for them as well as far as the Chinese were concerned.

Many who were wet with tears while hugging me tightly probably did not vote for PAS. They could not due to fear of retaliation. But it was still ‘we won’ for them. And they will tell their comrades all over Malaysia that they voted for BN mainly because the government threatened them. 8,000 Chinese voters in a state of more than one million and with 8,000 armed police surrounding the town did not offer them too many options.

But the Chinese will remember this. They will remember how Umno threatened them in the Kuala Terengganu by-election on 17 January 2009. And it will be payback time come the next general election. You can threaten 8,000 Chinese when your numbers are more than one million. But try doing this in states where the Malay-Chinese population is almost balanced.

Umno ‘won over’ the Chinese in Kuala Terengganu. But it was with a gun at the head. And the Chinese will never forget this. And neither will we. I was hoping that the Chinese were right. I was hoping that the Chinese can safely vote BN and that PAS will still win just on the Malay votes. On hindsight, the Chinese were right of course. Much to my relief that is exactly what happened, though I would have loved a 5,000 majority instead of just 2,631.In the short-term, Umno ‘won’ the Chinese votes. But the ‘win’ was gained through the barrel of the gun. This is not the best way to win because, in the long-term, the Chinese will want to ‘pay back’ Umno for threatening them in the Kuala Terengganu by-election.

And that will be when Umno discovers they have won the battle of Kuala Terengganu but they are going to lose the war, the bigger battle for Malaysia. And MCA too will suffer. If it was just Umno that threatened the Chinese this can be accepted as ‘normal’. But when MCA joins the gang of thugs to also threaten their own community, this is something the Chinese find hard to stomach. MCA is supposed to serve the Chinese. In the Kuala Terengganu by-election, MCA was the voice of Umno to help threaten the Chinese.

WE ARE ALL ERDOGANS

Monday, 19 January 2009 11:18

Liew Chin Tong for The Malaysian Insider

The Kuala Terengganu parliamentary by-election result shows that Pas commands the majority Malay support but fails to translate the anti-Umno Chinese sentiment into additional votes.

On the campaign trail I heard murmurs of memories of the hardline Pas state government of 1999-2004.

On the other hand, I have recently been shown an internal poll which suggests that non-Malay support for DAP was up to the roof but Malays were generally still wary of the party.

On Jan 17, we witnessed history in the making. We will only know the importance of that day when we look back later in the future but it is safe to say that the Umno-Barisan Nasional brand, in its current form, is beyond repair.

No one knows how much Umno spent on this “buy”-election. Apart from the various announced financial allocations, I happened to know that some CEOs of government-linked corporations were on stand-by in Kuala Terengganu to “take care” of expenditure incurred during the campaign.

Aided by the weight of the entire machineries of the Federal and the Terengganu state government, not to mention the mainstream media that misrepresented and distorted the news from the Opposition, Umno still lost miserably in the end.

The voters saw through BN’s timeless campaign modus operandi – money, media, and machinery. The Utusan-led racial campaign, the character assassinations against opposition figures and all other tricks did not stop Pas from winning with a convincing majority.

Umno is the backbone of BN, and has operated as the final arbiter of power in the multiethnic coalition because its Malay base underwrites the electoral prospect of other component parties.

But as Umno could not even rescue itself from its own electoral debacle, component parties, especially those from Sabah and Sarawak, are likely to rethink their strategic interests.

Neither the March 8 general election nor the Permatang Pauh parliamentary by-election had left such a strong impression that Umno is like a sand castle disintegrating like nobody’s business.

In this context, it is impossible for Pakatan Rakyat to enter the next general election just aspiring to be a strong opposition. Malaysians want us to be the government to bring change. But that requires all of us to move to the centre.

Let us look back a bit into the history of our Opposition, especially that of Pas. Being oppressed by the BN government from all fronts in a situation of permanent opposition, parties like Pas depended entirely on supporters and members who hung on to the movement religiously. It is their tenacity that kept the fire burning even in the darkest of nights.

But the reformasi a decade ago changed Pas membership profile – between September 1998 and November 1999, Pas members increased from 450,000 to 800,000 – while support base grew from mainly rural to urban centres and electoral prospect from a few East Coast seats to 27 parliamentary seats in the 1999 general election.

For the first time, Pas saw it possible to win federal power in a coalition. Throughout the last decade, the party has gone through many ups and downs, as well as internal rifts.

But the constant theme remains: whether to cooperate with other opposition parties, and to what extent, particularly on the issue of the Islamic state.

In late 2001, the then Pas president Datuk Fadzil Noor, with the intention to mainstream the party, directed a group to define an Islamic state. The paper, dubbed “the memorandum”, was silent on hudud while syariah is to be implemented gradually (tadaruj) through education. Democracy was the centre tenet.

With the passing of Fadzil in June 2002, the memorandum never saw the light. In its stead was Datuk Haron Din’s conservative and hardnosed “Dokumen Negara Islam”, released in November 2003, which contributed to Pas’ defeats in the subsequent general election.

Those within the party who intend to move Pas to the centre looked to Indonesia’s Partai Keadilan Sejahtera for inspiration.

The ascendance of Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Turkey provides another reference point. The leader of Turkey’s Justice and Development Party is the country’s prime minister. From him came the term “Erdogan”, intended to be a derogatory term by the conservatives in the party, especially after the 2008 elections, to be used against Pas members who aspire to move the party to the middle. To the conservatives, the Erdogans are willing to play second fiddle to Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim, the de facto opposition leader.

More importantly, the Erdogans devote their times building bridges among ethnic groups by focusing on common and practical platforms. The “Welfare State” tagline of the 2008 election was one such attempt.

I believe it’s time for all of us – all Malaysians – to become Erdogans. As Umno’s end is nigh, lets meet the aspirations of Malaysians for change and present our beloved country an alternative acceptable to all.

Once we can bridge the gap, our Pakatan Rakyat will be the more realistic and better alternative than the divisive BN.