Question of legitimacy looms as Sept 16 draws near

ANALYSIS By Wan Hamidi Hamid, The Malaysian Insider
Thursday, 04 September 2008 14:43

Twelve more days and it will be revealed whether Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim's Sept 16 takeover of the government is a reality or nothing more than the former deputy prime minister's psychological warfare against Barisan Nasional (BN).

One thing is real though – BN, especially its backbone Umno, is under a tremendous pressure, both externally and internally.

Datuk Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi's stern warning to Anwar last week – at the end of his 2009 Budget speech in the Parliament – was a reflection of what was going on in his mind at the moment.

"Efforts by certain parties to destabilise the country by attempting to seize power through illegitimate means, and without the mandate of the people, must be rejected.

"I will not permit the mandate given by the people to be seized from Barisan Nasional, which had won the last election with a majority of the seats, based on democratic principles," said the Prime Minister in a direct reference to the takeover plan.

The question of whether a new Federal Government formed through mass defections has a legitimate plank to stand on remains even among strong supporters of the Opposition.

Anwar has been pushing for the plan since the political tsunami which swept BN out of five states and lost the coalition its precious two-thirds majority in the Parliament.

And even in those early days in March, there were already debates among the opposition Pakatan Rakyat (PR) supporters, including some academics, on the legitimacy of forming a government through mass defections.

Political researcher Ong Kian Ming wrote in Malaysiakini.com in April that "a mass migration of 30 or more BN MPs today would mean Pakatan could no longer maintain the moral high ground as it would be guilty of employing the dirty tactics used by BN during the Mahathir years".

Academic Dr Mavis Puthucheary, while agreeing with Ong on the evils of party hopping, argued that in coalition politics, political parties were free to enter into and withdraw from coalitions as they wish.

"This happened in the period immediately following the 1969 elections when several opposition parties were co-opted into the newly formed Barisan Nasional. So too in 1990, when the Parti Bersatu Sabah left the BN to join the opposition alliance. In such a situation the question of the moral hazard of party hopping does not arise," she said.

She also proposed that it would be better for the Pakatan, if parties, rather than individual MPs, crossed over to their side.

"In doing so the leadership of these parties ought to get the broad agreement of their membership so that the rank and file understands the importance of switching sides. This would reduce the unhealthy wheeling and dealing that is associated with the defection of individuals".

Those arguments were made before Anwar came up with the Sept 16 deadline.
To many PKR leaders, they have to go along with their leader Anwar. Even those who are not really convinced – with the date, not the takeover plan – the best they can offer when asked about it is, "Insya Allah" (God willing).

To PKR allies however it's a different story. No doubt many harbour the hope that Anwar could pull it off. Yet for Pas, the oldest partner among them with the most formidable grassroots election machinery, its senior clerics are not convinced.
Even Pas spiritual leader Datuk Nik Abdul Aziz Nik Mat who is supportive of Anwar has reminded his party members not to be obsessed with the Sept 16 date, saying that it was just a technical matter.

"What is important is that the government must change its policies and mindset to appease the needs of the people," said the Kelantan Mentri Besar.

To DAP leaders, many were initially unfazed with the idea of party hopping. And many more were convinced later when Anwar explained that the offer was to get a fresh mandate to reform the country.

It’s in the arithmetic, stupid

by Raja Petra Kamarudin

Tuesday, 02 September 2008 14:32

This is not just about kicking Barisan Nasional out. This is not just about forming a new Pakatan Rakyat federal government. This is also about maintaining the peace, stability and harmony between the many races and about denying Umno the opportunity to turn this whole thing into a race issue.

Soon after the 8 March 2008 general election, Malaysia Today mooted the possibility that Pakatan Rakyat could form the new federal government if at least 30 Barisan Nasional Members of Parliament crossed over. Another idea that Malaysia Today mooted was the formation of the ‘Unity Government’ and the eventual emergence of a two-party system in Malaysia.

The two-party system was accepted with no problems but the crossovers and Unity Government proposals were whacked to kingdom come. Some even commented that I had ‘changed’ since the election and no longer speak the way I used to. They were beginning to wonder what had happened to me and whether I was suffering from ‘battle fatigue’ and should in fact take a long rest before continuing to write again.

The ‘ailment’ I was suffering from was merely a case of realpolitik or pragmatism. Let’s face it: what can Pakatan Rakyat do with a mere 82 seats in Parliament? It does not even have enough clout to stop the federal government from sabotaging the five states under Pakatan Rakyat control. And this can be done easily enough by squeezing the five states of development money (like how they did to Terengganu in 1999) whereby, come the next election, these states will fall back into Barisan Nasional’s hands (like what happened to Terengganu in 2004).

It’s all about money. If the states get squeezed of money, then the people will re-evaluate the logic of keeping these states under Pakatan Rakyat control. See what the 2009 Budget was all about. It was about pouring money into states like Sabah and Sarawak that may be the source of the crossovers. Umno knew that Sabah and Sarawak were the most possible targets of the crossovers. So they are promising billions to these two states just to ensure that they remain in Barisan Nasional.

Barisan Nasional has 140 seats in Parliament against Pakatan Rakyat’s 82 -- which is 31 for PKR, 28 for DAP and 23 for PAS. But that is for the whole country. In Peninsular Malaysia, Pakatan Rakyat has 80 seats against Barisan Nasional’s 86. Yes, that’s right. In Peninsular Malaysia, Barisan Nasional has only six seats more than Pakatan Rakyat. If just three Barisan Nasional Members of Parliament from Peninsular Malaysia cross over, Pakatan Rakyat would have 83 seats against Barisan Nasional’s 83.

The ‘main players’ in Barisan Nasional are Umno (79 seats), MCA (15 seats), MIC (3 seats) and Gerakan (2 seats). But 13 of Umno’s seats are in Sabah. Therefore, in Peninsular Malaysia, Umno has only 66 seats against MCA’s, MIC’s and Gerakan’s 20 (Total 86 for Barisan Nasional versus Pakatan Rakyat’s 80).

Sabah and Sarawak are definitely the Kingmakers. And the fact that, by law, 25% of the Parliament seats must come from Sabah and Sarawak means they shall always be the Kingmakers. And this is even more so now since, in Peninsular Malaysia, Barisan Nasional’s and Pakatan Rakyat’s seats are almost split 50:50. In fact, in Peninsular Malaysia, Pakatan Rakyat garnered more votes than Barisan Nasional (51% versus 49%). Only when you add the votes from Sabah and Sarawak are the percentages reversed.

The King of Kings would be PBB, Taib Mahmud’s party in Sarawak, which has 14 seats. This is followed by Umno in Sabah, which has 13 seats. SUPP and PRS, both in Sarawak, have six seats each. UPKO in Sabah and SPDP in Sarawak have four seats each -- followed by PBS in Sabah (3 seats), SAPP in Sabah (2 seats) and PBRS and LDP, both in Sabah, with one seat each.

The bottom line is, there are 56 Parliament seats in Sabah and Sarawak. Umno controls 13 and the opposition (DAP) two. The balance 41 are controlled by the component members of Barisan Nasional East Malaysia. If you regard the 13 Umno Sabah seats as ‘component member’ seats, then the total ‘hostile’ seats in East Malaysia (within Barisan Nasional) would be 54. Add the 20 from MCA, MIC and Gerakan, then Pakatan Rakyat would now have 74 seats to fish from.

And 30 seats are all Pakatan Rakyat needs. So 74 are plenty. And that is assuming the 66 Umno seats in Peninsular Malaysia remain with Barisan Nasional and do not cross over.

But there would be a problem if none of the 79 Umno Members of Parliament cross over. Pakatan Rakyat has 43 Malay Members of Parliament opposed to 39 non-Malays. That is okay because then Umno can’t say that the non-Malays control the opposition. But if 30 non-Malay Members of Parliament cross over to Pakatan Rakyat, and they get to form the new federal government, then it would be 69 non-Malays opposed to only 43 Malays.

Herein lies the problem and that is why there is a delay in Pakatan Rakyat forming the new federal government. Anwar Ibrahim does have his 30. In fact, it is more than 30. But Anwar has to be very careful in maintaining the ‘balance’. He can’t afford to form the new federal government with 69 or more non-Malay Members of Parliament and only 43 Malays. Umno would go to town with this and it will ‘prove’ what Umno has been saying these last many months: that the non-Malays have grabbed political power and the Malays have lost political power.

Yes, this is the song Umno has been singing since the 8 March 2008 general election. Malay political power had eroded, argues Umno. And once the 30 or more non-Malay Members of Parliament cross over and Pakatan Rakyat forms the new federal government, the Malays will lose political power.

In an Umno Johor Convention a couple of months ago, they spoke about how they regret giving citizenship to the immigrants on 31 August 1957. Now that these immigrants have been granted citizenship, they have demonstrated ingratitude by voting for the opposition. These immigrants should never have been given citizenship, argued speaker after speaker. And Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad and Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah were guests of honour in this Convention.

You could see Tengku Razaleigh cringe, as if in great pain, on hearing this. He knew that Barisan Nasional suffered its most humiliating performance on 8 March 2008 because of exactly this. Such statements are not going to help. It will just make matters worse.

Umno played the race card to the hilt in the run-up to the recent general election. And it is still doing so until now, as the Umno Bukit Bendera Division Chief has shown. They still refer to Malaysian-born Chinese and Indians as immigrants. They still call the Chinese and Indians ungrateful squatters. They still ask the Chinese and Indians to go back to China and India, though all these people were born in Malaysia and not in any other country.

In a PPP Convention in Melaka, held before the 8 March 2008 general election, the Umno Vice-President and Chief Minister told the 1,000 or so Indians that Umno does not need the non-Malays. They do not even need Sabah and Sarawak, said Ali Rustam. Umno has ruled Malaysia for 50 years without the non-Malays, or the people from Sabah and Sarawak, and they can continue to do so another 50.

Ali Rustam was not asked to apologise. Neither was the Umno Bukit Bendera Umno Chief, who Abdullah Badawi said did not really mean what he said. But if I were to say something like that, the police would be in front of my house the very next day and I would be hauled into court and charged for sedition within 24 hours. That would be how swift the police would act in the event I said even 10% of what the Umno leaders say.

And this will be what will trigger the crossovers. The Barisan Nasional Members of Parliament will join Pakatan Rakyat to form the new federal government because of such talk. Umno has no respect for the non-Malays. Umno thinks all it needs to do is to bribe Sabah and Sarawak with more development funds and they will remain the loyal running dogs of Barisan Nasional. Umno knows that the Parliament seats in Peninsular Malaysia are split almost 50:50. So all they need to do is to bribe Sabah and Sarawak and the 54 seats in East Malaysia will remain in Barisan Nasional and Umno will subsequently remain in power.

Umno also knows that by just getting at least 30 Members of Parliament from Sabah and Sarawak, or even the 20 from MCA, MIC and Gerakan, to cross over is not enough. That would give Pakatan Rakyat a 43-Malay versus 69-non-Malay federal government. This will be exactly what Umno wants. Then they can play up the ‘Malays have lost political power’ race card. And then the May 13 Version 2 would become a reality.

There are many impatient people. They want Anwar to take over and form the new federal government today. They want at least 30 Members of Parliament from Sabah and Sarawak to cross over now. They want Anwar to tell Umno to go to hell. But he can’t do that. He needs Umno. Well, at least he needs some of those from Umno. He needs at least 15 to 20 Umno Members of Parliament to join another 15 to 20 non-Malay Members of Parliament to cross over so that he can form the new federal government with the right racial balance. Then Umno can’t say that the Malays have lost political power. And Umno also can’t use this to fan the sentiments of the Malays and trigger another race riot the likes of what happened on 13 May 1969.

This is not just about kicking Barisan Nasional out. This is not just about forming a new Pakatan Rakyat federal government. This is also about maintaining the peace, stability and harmony between the many races and about denying Umno the opportunity to turn this whole thing into a race issue.

And Anwar, of all people, knows this. And that is why he is taking his time about it and is covering all the bases before making his move. We want Malaysia to move forward into 2009. We do not want to return to 1969. This is the crux of the matter.

Yeh, yeh, kita menang!

Thursday, 28 August 2008 13:45

Tell your friends and family that the son of Malaysia Today has taken over the fight of its father. And this son is called mt.harapanmalaysia.com. Also tell them that the fight is going to get fiercer. The son wants to avenge the death of its father.

Government to target blogosphere next

The Malaysian Insider, 26 August 2006

Next up: a crackdown on bloggers. This possibility looms large after the government reached a sober assessment that it could all end in tears for the Barisan Nasional at the next general election if tough action is not taken to counter allegations on the Net and hold owners of blogs accountable.

This conclusion was reached during a meeting last week involving several Cabinet ministers and senior government officials, including Deputy Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak.Government officials noted that some 400,000 new voters are registered each year. Assuming that the next polls are in five years, there would be two million new voters the next time the BN seeks a fresh mandate. A large chunk of these two million voters are likely to obtain their news and information from websites and blogs, and not from the mainstream media.

Several ministers noted that if the government followed its current policy of allowing allegations by bloggers to go unchallenged, this would create the perception that the information being posted is accurate.

"There is a growing consensus in government that those who run websites and blogs should be held accountable and this means that laws should be used to take action against those who defame and spread disinformation."

If not, we are going to have a situation where everyone will be free to make all sorts of allegations with no downside at all. There is a fear that the trust level with BN would be very low if nothing is done, '' said a senior government official familiar with details of the meeting.

The prevailing mood in the government against the alternative media is one of frustration. After decades of being able to control newspapers and television stations through a raft of legislation, government officials and politicians are finding that their tools are useless in setting boundaries for new media.

At last week's meeting, an official of the Malaysian Communications and Multimedia Commission (MCMC) explained that the authorities have not come down hard on websites and bloggers because Section 3 of the Communications and Multimedia Act prohibits any form of censorship.

But government officials corrected him and said that the guarantee that the Internet would not be censored did not preclude legal action from being taken against bloggers for defamation and sedition.
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Request for action under section 263(2) of the Communication and Multimedia Act 1998 In exercising your duties under section 263 (1) of the CMA98 act in preventing the commission or attempted commission of an offence under any written law of Malaysia or otherwise in enforcing the laws of Malaysia, including, but not limited to, the protection of the public revenue and preservation of national security as provided under section 263(2) of the same act , the commission hereby requests to undertake the actions under section 263(2) of the CMA 98 with respect to the following url/web reference:

http//www.malaysia-today.net/2008/content/view/1252/46 .

To request all internet service providers in Malaysia to block access to the website. The abovementioned url address has been found to be in contravention of section 211 and 233 of the act. (Letter from MCMC to all ISPs, 26 August 2008)
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Dear Anil,Your biased live coverage of the PP buy-election was disgusting to say the least. It seemed like the Barisan Nasional was non-existent in PP. The fact that more than 15,000 people voted for Arif Shah is testimony to BN’s popularity. If it were not for the roughhouse tactics of the PKR goons, more legitimate voters would have made it to the polling stations. You and your ilk ought to be detained under the ISA and the keys thrown away.

You are partisan, unfair, biased, and a false witness to the events in PP. Like the 31,000 odd who voted for Anwar, you are ungrateful for the development and progress wrought by the BN. Honestly ask yourself: Would you even own a laptop or even know how to use the Internet if not for the education that the BN gave you? Just like the other bloggers and commentators on the blogsites, you bite the hand that feeds you. You are despicable and so are Raja Petra and the likes of him.

When the BN government finally wipes out the Opposition from the face of this Earth, we’ll be coming after you and all of your ilk for the lies and ridiculous untrue propaganda that you spread to the innocent rakyat. Unfortunately it seems now that a large minority of the rakyat are stupid enough to pay attention to the lies of the Opposition. The BN will educate them very soon and I assure you it will be a painful lesson indeed.

BN Sakthi!!!(http://anilnetto.com/democracy/my-biased-live-coverage-was-disgusting/ )

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Yeh, yeh, kita menang!

Kita menang when the government decided to ask all Malaysian ISPs to block Malaysia Today. The government has finally admitted it has lost the internet war, a war which started way back in 1998 on the birth of the Reformasi movement.

The first government clampdown was more than seven years ago -- on Hari Raya Haji of March 2001 -- when the police arrested me, raided my house, and confiscated my computer. In that incident, Bakri Zinin, the CID Director, beat me up in the police station in front of more than twenty witnesses, one of them my wife. Cikgu Bard, PKR’s candidate for Rembau in the recent general election (versus Khairy Jamaluddin), was also there. In fact, Cikgu Bard was handcuffed to me -- his left hand attached to my right hand. They then detained me, my wife, Cikgu Bard -- plus five others -- overnight in the police lockup.

The following month, I was detained for two months, also for what I wrote on the internet. Since then, over the last seven years, the police have raided my house five times -- the latest was last Thursday -- and they confiscated my computers and other stuff each time. I was called in to the police station for interrogation (they call it ‘to record your statement’) a half dozen times or so and I currently face four charges as well. Over the next week or so I will again have to report to the police headquarters at Bukit Aman for my ‘statement to be recorded’. I am waiting for them to phone me, which will be over the next few days.

On Monday, the eve of the Permatang Pauh by-election, Malaysia Today saw three times the normal traffic. We anticipated this and beefed up our resources to be able to cater for this heavier traffic. This high traffic continued till Polling Day the following day. Malaysia Today was supposed to flash the early election results from around 6.00pm, ahead of the mainstream media. But, as the results came in, and just before Malaysia Today could flash them, the government blocked access to Malaysia Today.

Why did they do this? Simple, they wanted to make sure that the results remained a ‘secret’ in case it was a close-finish. Assuming Anwar Ibrahim’s majority was very narrow then they would not want anyone knowing about it until they decide what to do. If Anwar won by a mere few hundred votes then something could be done to ‘modify’ the final results. But this would be difficult to pull off if the results have already been flashed on Malaysia Today.

Nevertheless, Anwar won two out of three votes casted (66.6%), so the margin was just too wide to manipulate -- so it did not really matter anyway. But if it were a mere few hundred-vote majority then it would certainly have mattered. For example, they could have suddenly ‘discovered’ missing ballot boxes not yet counted -- as has sometimes happened in the past like when they turned Najib’s 1,800-vote loss into a 200-vote win by ‘injecting’ an additional 2,000 ‘postal votes’ that suddenly and mysteriously surfaced.Kita menang when they decided to block Malaysia Today on the day of Anwar’s historic win in Permatang Pauh.

It is very difficult for the opposition to win a by-election. Even if, by any chance, the opposition does win the by-election, never can that win be greater than the general election before that. This time, however, Anwar not only won, but he won with a greater majority than in the general election before that. And that is the greatest win of all. A win not only for the people of Permatang Pauh but for all Malaysians. Because the message sent to the government is very precise: the people no longer want Umno or Barisan Nasional.

Yes, kita menang. It is not just the Permatang Pauh voters or Anwar Ibrahim who menang. It is we, the people, who menang. So kita yang menang.Kita menang because the Permatang Pauh by-election result is not only about Permatang Pauh, but also about the 8 March 2008 Tsunami. They say that 8 March 2008 was a flash-in-the-pan. They say it was something that came and went and can never be repeated. But the Permatang Pauh by-election proved that the 8 March 2008 Tsunami is still very much alive and has not fizzled out. The message to the government is the people still want you out.

Kita menang because they say that only the Chinese and Indians are with the opposition while the Malays are with Umno and Barisan Nasional. No doubt half the voters voted opposition on 8 March 2008 but then only 49% of the Malays did so. Even then, they say, the Malays voted opposition more out of protest and not because they support the opposition. But the Malays now regret voting opposition because they did not think that five states would fall to the opposition and that Barisan Nasional would lose its two-thirds majority in Parliament, they say.

If the elections were held again, the Malays would swing back to Umno and Barisan Nasional, they say. Sure, the Malays voted opposition on 8 March 2008. But they did so just to send a message to Umno and Barisan Nasional and now that this message has been delivered there is no longer any reason to continue voting opposition.

But the Permatang Pauh by-election proved them wrong. There are 69% Malay voters in Permatang Pauh, only 31% Chinese, Indians and Thais. If the Malays had swung back to Umno, leaving only the non-Malays to vote opposition, then Anwar would not have won 66.6% or two out of every three of the votes. It needed a Malay swing to achieve this.

So, kita menang. The Malays did not swing back to Umno and Barisan Nasional. The 8 March 2008 Tsunami has not fizzled out. They now need to block Malaysia Today because they acknowledge that the internet has done a lot of damage to Umno and Barisan Nasional. Umno and Barisan Nasional have admitted they have lost the internet war and the only way they can stop Malaysia Today is to block it.

Yeh, yeh, kita menang! Umno and Barisan Nasional dah kalah! Malaysia Today may be ‘dead’. But the son of Malaysia Today is not dead. It is alive. It is not only alive but it is also fucking mad. And the son of Malaysia Today is going to continue the fight just as Malaysia Today continued the fight on 13 August 2004, which was started by the Reformasi movement in September 1998.

Raja Petra Kamarudin no longer owns Malaysia Today. Raja Petra may have started the original Malaysia Today. But he does not own it any more. Malaysia Today has been replaced by the son of Malaysia Today. And the son of Malaysia Today is owned by the people of Malaysia. The people of Malaysia are keeping the son of Malaysia Today going. It is now called MT Harapan Malaysia and you can access it at
mt.harapanmalaysia.com .

Spread this message far and wide. Tell all your friends and family that Malaysia Today has died. It died at 6.00pm on 26 August 2008, the time and day that Anwar Ibrahim won the Permatang Pauh by-election with historic results and which has now triggered his march to Putrajaya. But also tell your friends and family that the son of Malaysia Today has taken over the fight of its father. And this son is called mt.harapanmalaysia.com.

Also tell them that the fight is going to get fiercer. The son wants to avenge the death of its father. And don’t forget to also gloat to your friends and family: yeh, yeh, kita menang!

Ooh, does this cigar taste good!

Permatang Pauh

Thursday, 28 August 2008 08:52

This by-election was all about Anwar Ibrahim and whether or not he could generate the momentum for his push on Putrajaya. Whilst the posters in Permatang Pauh stressed his federal ambitions, he knew he needed to win big in order to revitalise his campaign.

By KARIM RASLAN/ MySinchew

Anwar Ibrahim's rehabilitation – and the future of Malaysian politics – has been decided by the voters of Permatang Pauh, and when I visited the constituency over the weekend I observed many other important themes. Arriving on Saturday evening I headed straight for the ceramahs in the constituency's east. Wet, in the dark and rushing to venues amidst the crush of activists, it was hard to get a sense of this sprawling area opposite Penang island.

When I retraced my steps the next day I got a better impression of Permatang Pauh's geography and its relevance for much of Malaysia. It is bisected by the all-important North-South highway. To its west is the multiracial township of Seberang Jaya - a typical suburban community with a mall, four-storey shophouses dotted with kopitiams and organised boulevards.

To the east are predominantly Malay kampungs amongst expansive rice-fields, leading to Bukit Mertajam on the fringes, where tower blocks mark the constituency's edge. This geography reflects a trend that emerged from the March 8th results. On the peninsula's populous west coast, the Pakatan did better in multiracial constituencies and less so in the majority Malay constituencies where Barisan (and Umno) still prevailed.

"Sitting MPs won't jump unless they're confident that they're backing a winner."

However, in the case of Permatang Pauh there is an interesting irony which holds the key for Umno and Barisan's eventual recovery. On March 8th, Pakatan won the two majority Malay state seats of Penanti and Permatang Pasir whilst the multiracial Seberang Jaya state seat was retained by the Barisan's Arif Shah. A similar trend can be seen in the Pandan parliamentary seat in Selangor where Transport Minister and MCA aspirant Ong Tee Keat survived the tsunami whilst the two Barisan state assemblymen fell to the Pakatan.

That the Barisan and Umno were able to hold onto Seberang Jaya amidst the political turmoil earlier in the year shows that all is not lost for the party of Merdeka. If the Barisan wants to win back multiracial Malaysia they must adopt more candidates with deep local roots, committed to constituency work and able to work across racial and religious differences.

This by-election was all about Anwar Ibrahim and whether or not he could generate the momentum for his push on Putrajaya. Whilst the posters in Permatang Pauh stressed his federal ambitions, he knew he needed to win big in order to revitalise his campaign. The thumping victory was an endorsement for a man whose travails have dominated national politics for three decades. Sitting MPs won't jump unless they're confident that they're backing a winner.

Watching Anwar deliver his speech in Kubang Semang on Saturday night was an eye-opener. After thousands sat patiently in the rain as Ustaz Harun Din and Azmin Ali warmed up the crowd, Anwar was ribald, witty yet serious. He joked about the various strip-searches he'd endured over the years before explaining his position on the NEP and Lim Guan Eng's record as Chief Minister of Penang, all in front of a predominantly Malay crowd.

Tragically there's no one in Umno who can match his intelligence and drive, although his attacks on Khairy Jamaluddin suggests he recognizes ambition. But once again the civil liberties agenda comes to the forefront: Umno won't recoup its credibility until it adopts the reform agenda. Invoking the force of law and institutions of state underline Umno's pathetic condition. Its self-obsession with its own internal polls and uncertain relations with its coalition partners stand in stark contrast to the mounting confidence and focus of the Pakatan. Umno leaders still mistakenly see national politics as a sideshow to the Umno polls.

Finally, driving across Permatang Pauh revealed PAS' overwhelming strength. At every ceramah they were the backbone to the Pakatan's strategy. The Ulama's willingness to lend their moral authority to Anwar in his time of need will inevitably lead to a subtle reordering of the power structure within the Pakatan, an alliance of near-equals. Nik Aziz's visit sent major signals to doubters within the party. But will PKR and DAP curb its less democratic tendencies? Is Pakatan a Trojan horse for a PAS-led Malaysia? Only time will tell.

With Anwar as an MP and leader of the opposition, the public discourse will refocus on Parliament. Still, Anwar's strength is as much a testimony to his extraordinary personality as it is to Umno's decline. If the party can learn from its defeats it will have a future. If not we'll be dependent on Anwar's undoubted charisma as he seeks to ride the three-headed Pakatan coalition to power.

Soi Lek dares Tee Keat to repeat threat to Umno

Thursday, 28 August 2008 08:05

(The Sun) FORMER MCA vice-president Datuk Seri Dr Chua Soi Lek has upped the ante in his media war with party presidential candidate, vice-president Datuk Ong Tee Keat, with a dare to Ong to repeat to Umno what he told the Chinese press lately -- that MCA may pull out of Barisan Nasional if Umno does not shed its "Ketuanan Melayu" policies.


Writing in his blog on Tuesday, Chua, without mentioning names, chided the only man (so far) who has offered to run for MCA presidency for pretending to speak out for the Chinese community.

"One would think that when the only man running for the post of MCA president says the party may have to pull out of the Barisan Nasional if Umno continues to champion the concept of 'Ketuanan Melayu', it should make the front page of all newspapers," he said.

"Instead, it was only reported in Sunday's Nanyang Siang Pau.

"The rest of the Chinese dailies offered up only today some muted reaction to the candidate's suggestion," Chua said, adding that Bahasa Malaysia and English newspapers have steered clear of reporting his statements for now.

He said some people have labelled him (Chua) a "political has-been", and tried to show the party's grassroots, the bulk of whom read the Chinese newspapers, that the endorsed candidate for the MCA presidency is indeed a man with the courage to speak out against Umno.

"But has he really spoken out and articulated the frustrations of the Chinese community?

"What is the reaction of Umno towards such a strong statement from an MCA vice-president and cabinet minister?" he asked.

One would never know, he said, "because it appears the statement so far is meant only for the eyes of the Chinese community".

He said MCA does not need someone who only pretends to speak out for the Chinese but a president who will speak out for all Malaysians and against all injustices.

"It is really insulting to members to think that in this age of multi-culturalism, anyone would choose to put on a show in the Chinese newspapers for the Chinese community," he said.

He dared the "endorsed candidate" to send a letter to Umno, repeating his statement that MCA may pull out of BN if Umno does not shed its Ketuanan Melayu policies.

"He should also officially issue statements that that will be MCA's policy should he become president," he said, adding that if he (Ong) does not write a letter to Umno or have a private chat with the prime minister about what he said, then he would be very rude in issuing a threat without letting the other party know.

If he does not do any of these things, then it would appear he was just hoping to get political support to attain his ambition without actually intending to walk the talk, he said.

Chua, who is regarded as a likely candidate to challenge Ong in the October party election, and Ong have traded barbs in the Chinese press and in cyber space over the issue of moral and conduct for politicians.

His latest tirade was given prominent space in the Chinese dailies yesterday.

Maybe not Sept 16, but Putrajaya is definitely in Anwar's sights

By Leslie Lau

AUG 26 - Now that Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim has expectedly been returned to Parliament by voters in his hometown, the big question is will he become the next prime minister? The odds are still against him doing it by Sept 16.

For one, he has less than three weeks to persuade enough MPs to defect from the Barisan Nasional. He also needs to quell the problem of mounting disputes between the secular DAP and the Islamist Pas in his coalition. There is also the sodomy charge he will have to fight in court.

But his victory in Permatang Pauh today does give him renewed momentum in his quest to lead the fledgling Pakatan Rakyat coalition to eventually take over the Federal Government. He will use his new position as Parliamentary Opposition Leader to up the ante against the weak administration of Datuk Seri Abdullah Badawi.

Anwar will also argue that his victory in Permatang Pauh, a predominantly Malay seat, shows there is significant support for his multiracial approach. After all, the former DPM has openly declared he will put an end to the NEP-style pro-Malay affirmative action policies of the BN government by replacing Umno's "ketuanan Melayu," with his "ketuanan rakyat-. And still he won today's elections handsomely in a Malay seat.

Even the onslaught of attacks against his personal character, from the sodomy charge hanging over him to allegations that he will sell out the country to the Jews and that he approved gambling licences while still in government, did not prevent today's landslide.

Call Anwar the Teflon man if you will, since an independent survey found a majority of the Malay electorate in Permatang Pauh believed the sodomy charge against him is politically motivated.

What the BN leadership should learn from their defeat today is that it is not just about Anwar. Five months after losing five states and a two-thirds majority in Parliament, the BN suffers from a major perception problem. A significant number of Malaysians just do not believe in the BN anymore. The BN is now associated with arrogance, a sense of entitlement, corruption, oppression. The list goes on.

Anwar and the PR, fragile as the alliance may currently be, represents change to significant numbers of Malaysians. And with a flagging economy and high inflation, the sentiment now is against the BN government.

The BN coalition, for so long the best brand in Malaysian politics, is also facing insurrection from within. While the turmoil faced by Umno seems to have receded for now, the other BN parties are becoming increasingly unhappy with their dominant partner's more pro-Malay stance. There has been growing support from within the MCA, Gerakan and other parties to withdraw from the BN coalition.

What is certain is that Malaysia faces more political uncertainty ahead. So will Anwar eventually become prime minister? Maybe not on Sept 16, but a man who can win a by-election and become the leader of the strongest Federal Opposition this country has seen in 51 years just four years after being released from jail cannot be written off.


- The Malaysian Insider

Permatang Pauh: Winners and losers

AUG 26 - Every election produces winners and losers. Here is The Malaysian Insider's take on who emerged from Permatang Pauh with credit and who should hit the soul-searching button.

WINNERS

- Anwar Ibrahim

The Barisan Nasional threw the kitchen sink and everything in it at him but by next sitting he will take his place in Parliament. This all but completes his rehabilitation from a political has-been 10 years ago to possibly the next prime minister of Malaysia. He now faces the near impossible task of persuading at least 30 BN MPs to cross over to Pakatan Rakyat and forcing the collapse of the Barisan Nasional by Sept 16. But for today at least he can savour the taste of victory. And yes, the debate on who should be the prime minister-in-waiting is over.

- Pakatan Rakyat

For the past two months, there have been serious questions over the future of this alliance. Some Pas leaders seemed keen on joining forces with Umno, concerned that Malay rights and the position of Islam were being diluted in Pakatan Rakyat. DAP and Pas also disagreed publicly on who should be the prime-minister-in-waiting and squabbled over the spoils of Election 2008. Guess what? All the differences were forgotten as members of PKR, DAP and Pas descended on Permatang Pauh. They outwitted and outfought the formidable BN machinery.

- Datuk Nik Aziz Nik Mat

When others wavered, the Pas spiritual leader stood firmly beside Anwar, campaigning tirelessly and defending the Opposition icon against the sodomy charge. By far, he was the single most powerful antidote against Saiful Bukhari Azlan swearing on the Quran that he had been sodomised by Anwar. He has emerged with reputation and image among PKR supporters burnished.

LOSERS

- Umno

The charade is over. This is a party without spirit. This is a party without a leader. Ministers, deputy ministers and other senior party officials all campaigned in Permatang Pauh but it was more out of duty than anything else. There was no fire in their bellies. Some could not care less how Datuk Arif Shah Omar Shah performed in the polls. They showed up in the constituency to canvass for support in the upcoming divisional elections in October. One former menteri besar, eyeing a top position in the party, holed up in a hotel and dished out cash to streams of divisional officials. This is a party made of politicians who are consumed with their own interest and completely detached from reality. This could be the beginning of the end of this once powerful party.

- The Barisan Nasional machinery

There was a time when the Opposition used to shudder at the prospect of facing the formidable machinery, the women who used to campaign tirelessly from dusk to dawn, the men who braved the elements to tear down Opposition posters and ferry voters to the polling station. Not anymore. Dispirited, they just did the bare minimum in Permatang Pauh. In fact, it was the Pakatan Rakyat machinery which caught the eye. Their workers displayed the spirit of volunteerism which was once patented by the BN. How the mighty have fallen.

- Abdullah Ahmad Badawi

He was not in charge of the BN by-election team but the president of Umno and the chairman of the BN will not be able to absolve himself of blame for this dismal showing. The unvarnished fact is that he has not been able to inspire his party or the ruling coalition since March 8. If his party workers are listless, it is because they do not see him as a general capable of galvanising the troops in the face of an enemy's onslaught. If his coalition partners are feeble, it is because they do not see him as a leader capable of reviving the BN. In all likelihood, there will be calls for him to speed up the transfer of power.

- Najib Razak

Without a doubt, the deputy prime minister is hurting. The uninterrupted stream of attacks on his character, his wife and allegations that he was involved with the murdered Mongolian model Altantuya Shariibuu have damaged him in the eyes of the public. His words once used to carry weight but now they ring hollow. His decision to swear in a mosque that he was not involved with Altantuya did not find popular support. Still, he remains best placed to take over from Abdullah. But he will need much repair to his image before he can claim to have the support of Malaysians.

- Saiful Bukhari Azlan

He claimed it was a coincidence but his decision to swear on the Quran on the eve of nomination day that he was sodomised by Anwar does not look very clever now. A snap poll of 544 Malay voters by the Merdeka Centre painted him as a pawn in a political game. He should stay out of the limelight till the trial begins.

- The Malaysian Insider